Moneyballing the MLB: Our Picks for Trades That Need to Happen This Year

We’re three weeks into the season and starting to see who the contenders and pretenders are. It’s still too early to say any teams are out of it but those that think they have a chance are already scouting ways to improve their team before the trade deadline in July. Here are some ideas that should work out for both sides, whether it be short or long term.

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The Padres Trade:  Huston Street to the Tigers
The Tigers Trade:  Rick Porcello and a Prospect to the Padres

This one is probably the most obvious. The Tigers closer situation has been a mess all year while the offense and starting pitching are both championship worthy; the Padres have a top of the line closer and no need for one, so it’s a match made in baseball heaven. San Diego is more than likely going to finish last in the NL West, losing near 100 games.   A team like that doesn’t need someone like Huston Street. The Tigers have been using a mixture of Joaquin Benoit and Al Alburquerque while Jose Valverde worked his way up from the minors. Both Alburquerque and Benoit are good relievers, they just don’t have the stomach for the 9th inning role. The mystery is whether Valverde will be the guy who saved 49 games with a 2.24 in 2011 or the guy who saved 35 with a 3.78 in 2012. Huston Street is the safer option and it won’t break the bank to get him. He might just cost Detroit Rick Porcello, a middling starter who the Tigers wouldn’t miss in their rotation but the Padres could use in theirs.

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The Marlins Trade:  Giancarlo Stanton to the Rangers
The Rangers Trade: Jurickson Profar, Martin Perez, and whatever else the Marlins want to the Marlins

The Rangers have never been afraid to make a huge midseason move, and more than likely they will pull off another blockbuster come July. The real question is whether it’s going to be for a pitcher like Cliff Lee, or if they go big for the Josh Hamilton replacement in Giancarlo Stanton. Giancarlo being just 23 years old tips the scale heavily in his favor. The Rangers have been reluctant to trade their top prospect Jurickson Profar but with the eight year extension they gave to Andrus, he’s suddenly very expendable. More than likely it would take Profar and top pitching prospect Martin Perez to even get Miami to listen to an offer. Stanton is extremely unhappy with the Miami situation and a trade is likely to happen before the deadline with the Rangers being one team that should be heavy bidders.

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The Padres Trade:  Chase Headley to the Royals
The Royals Trade: Mike Moustakas and prospects to the Padres

A couple months ago Chase Headley to the Yankees looked like a very strong possibility but with what Kevin Youkilis has shown at the plate this season and with the Yanks reluctance to add any salary it seems less and less likely. The Padres are still interested in unloading Headley for prospects to continue their seemingly perennial rebuilding effort and a good landing spot for him might be the Kansas City Royals. The Royals are a team that wants to win now and with a hot start and two wildcard slots it’s not a long shot that they’ll try to make a move to improve their chances at the playoffs. Mike Moustakas has been a disappointment after being drafted number two overall but he’s still just 24 with a ton of potential. A trade based around Moustakas and a couple midlevel minor league players for Chase Headley would give the Royals the impact bat they need and the Padres more pieces for their rebuild.

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Mariners Trade:  Mike Morse to the Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays Trade:  Chris Archer and a midlevel prospect to the Mariners

The AL East is one of the most evenly matched divisions in the league and the Rays might need to make a move to stand out. The pitching staff led by Price and Moore is above average and their defense is the best in the league, it’s the offense that has been the problem. Ben Zobrist is a nice player but Longoria is really the only true force they have in their lineup. The Mariners were hoping they could compete this year but that doesn’t seem to be the case. By the time June rolls around and they’re ten games back they’ll be looking to sell. Seattle has the start of a very nice pitching staff and adding someone like Chris Archer, one of the Rays top pitching prospects would be a huge addition. Adding Morse to the Rays lineup, especially if they also call up top prospect Wil Myers changes the face of their team.

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The Twins Trade:  Justin Morneau to the A’s
The Oakland A’s Trade: Dan Straily and prospects to the Twins

A boring trade, but one that makes a ton of sense for both teams. The A’s are a pretty good all-around team who might just be a piece or two away from a serious playoff run. Brandon Moss is a very mediocre player at first base and adding someone like Justin Morneau to the middle of that lineup to protect guys like Reddick and Cespedes (when healthy) would be a huge boost for this team. The A’s have a wealth of young pitching and minor league talent and could easily get a deal done. The Twins have a horrendous rotation and while Straily isn’t a guaranteed ace he’s someone who’s proven he can hold his own at the major league level.

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The Astros Trade:  Bud Norris to the Reds
The Cincinnati Reds Trade:  a package of mid-level prospects to the Astros

It’s no secret that the Astros are pretty much just a minor league system for the rest of the league to leech off of with Chris Johnson, Michael Bourn, Brett Myers, Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence and Jeff Keppinger being just a handful of the multitude of players the ‘Stros have shipped off in the past 3 years alone. Bud Norris seems to be the next guy up. The 28 year old inconsistent starter has an ERA around four this season but has shown flashes of potential. He’s doing nothing for a team that seems destined to lose 100 games and pitching in that environment has to be a soul crusher. A team that makes sense as a trade partner for Norris is the Cincinnati Reds, a team built to win now with one glaring weakness, the back end of the rotation. Mike Leake is not a reliable 4th starter and Bud Norris would be a big improvement. It wouldn’t take a lot to get him either, the reds wouldn’t have to part with speedster Billy Hamilton or flamethrower Tony Cingrani. The Astros would likely settle for a package of three or four mid-level prospects, as they always seem to do.

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The Phillies Trade:  Cliff Lee to the Red Sox
Red Sox Trade: A package of prospects to the Phillies

The Red Sox are sitting in first place in the AL East and could be looking for an arm if they’re still in it come July. Lester is an ace but after him their rotation is a mishmosh of former relievers and inconsistent starters. The Phillies are an older organization with a pretty poor farm system that could use replenishing, trading Lee would do exactly that while shedding his huge salary. Especially if the Nats and Braves run away with the division and the Phillies are out of it come summer time, there’s a good chance Lee gets traded yet again.