Saratoga Chick Picks the Belmont Stakes
Saratoga Chick ‘Handicapper of the Stars’ 146th Belmont Stakes Picks/Betting Strategy
Quote of the Day:
Tony Cheeseburger: The 1 horse! Nobody bets the 1 horse, Trotter! The 1 horse is a joke! They let little kiddies on the 1 horse to have their picture taken.” ~ Let It Ride (1989)
Race 11 – The Belmont Stakes:
#1 – Medal Count (20/1) – my Kentucky Derby win pick was never going to catch California Chrome but might’ve snagged the show or place spots if Danza’s dumb, deep-stretch ass hadn’t crossed his path (the gutless Churchill stewards should be ashamed of themselves for not KO-ing Tony’s namesake out of the money.) Neigh-sayers point to Medal Count’s lack of a quality real dirt win: so far, he’s only excelled on fake/synthetic dirt. That said, am I dreaming? Are my real/fake friends right in saying “The 1 horse is a fucking joke!” Fuck them; fuck everybody. I believed in Medal Count in the KY Derby: my gut and balls are saying, “Let It Ride.”
#6 – Wicked Strong (6/1) – per Progressive Handicapping guru, Jim Mazur and horseracing Bible, Thoro-Graph’s analytical chapter and verse, Wicked Strong is the most likely winner. Maybe, but he’ll need two BIG things to happen: (1) someone(s) will have to prod California Chrome out of a slowpoke, uncontested lead; (2) Indo-Jamaican, Rajiv Maragh – often capable of a fuckhead ride – can’t forget to use his thinking cap.
#2 – California Chrome (3/5) – 120,000+ Belmont attendees and millions of starry-eyed racing fans are hoping to see the next Triple Crown champion. I, on the other hand, can’t wait to hear the deafening thud from the Belmont crowd when CC fails to hit the wire first. Yes, crowning California Chrome would be a cuddly sports page story especially considering his small town, near death connections. Consider this: 1903 was the last time a Cal-bred won the Belmont Stakes; and heading into Friday’s card, Cal-based tamale jock, Victor Espinoza’s Belmont record reads like a potter’s field sign-off: 68 mounts; 3 wins. That said, you want him, you got him……at a very short, cocksure load time price.
#5 – Ride On Curlin (12/1) – Preakness rider Joel Rosario hops off/on Tonalist. I’m betting Joel wishes he stayed put after his mount drew the piss poor 11-hole. Now Belmont savvy, hall of famer Johnny Velasquez takes the reins. Skeptics posit there’s more than a 50% chance Ride On Curlin bounces off his two most recent nutbusting efforts. I’m not so fucking sure.
Betting Strategy:
– Bet amount: $60 – $20 Win/Place/Show tickets on (#1) Medal Count if 10 MTP (i.e. minutes to post time) odds are > 15 – 1; $30 Win/Place tickets if 10 MTP odds are – Bet Amount: $30 – $5 exacta box using (#1) Medal Count; (#2) California Chrome (#6) Wicked Strong
– Bet Amount: $12 – $0.50 trifecta box using (#1) Medal Count; (#2) California Chrome; (#5) Ride On Curlin;
(#6) Wicked Strong
– Bet Amount: $12 – $0.10 superfecta using (#1) Medal Count; (#2) California Chrome; (#5) Ride On Curlin;
(#6) Wicked Strong; (#7) Samraat
Total Bets = $114
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