Saratoga Chick Picks the Preakness

at
Share This Post

chickSaratoga Chick ‘Handicapper of the Stars’ 139th Preakness analysis/betting strategy

Historical Dope:

  • – Running Style- There have only been 6 “wire to wire” winners in the last 28 runnings, including last year’s front-end win by Oxbow. Stalkers and closers are the preferred running styles.
  • – Post Position – Is (usually) a factor. Key Stat: horses breaking from post #9 and higher are 7/90 while posts #1 and #2 are just 3/76 (i.e. in last 28 runnings)

Analysis: Listed by post position/program #; runner’s name; morning line odds; rider

  • 1 – Dynamic Impact (12-1); Miguel Mena – positively impacted my $10 win/place confidence by ‘nosing’ heavy favorite, Midnight Hawk in the Illinois Derby 28 days ago. Was primed to take a ‘when in doubt, whip it out’ shot on him until he drew the dreaded one hole. Will still use in exotic plays.
  • 2 – General a Rod (15-1); Javier Castellano – top tier tamale jock, Joel Rosario hops off a Rod, hops aboard Ride On Curlin. Javier reunites with near-miss winner of Fountain of Youth, General a Rod; the little man who lives in my gut says , “reunited and its feels so good.” I don’t believe in a ‘three in one’ God but do believe in my favorite tamale: the Patron Saint of longshots, when you least expect them. The pick.
  • 3 – California Chrome (3-5); Victor Espinoza – per Ron Bennington, only tourists, women and gays back Broadway shows. Per the Handicapper of the Stars, only maudlin Triple Crown well wishers and “I told you so!” assholes back 3-5 chalk plays to win. Now I hear California Chrome is being treated for a small, recurrent blister in his throat (it appeared before the Derby, went down after treatment, and came back this week). It could be nothing; it could be equine AIDS. That said, Chrome’s the most likely winner but do you want to take a short price on a horse who might have AIDS? Will still include on all (albeit, latex glove handled) exotic tickets.
  • 4 – Ring Weekend (20-1); Alan Garcia – will be hearing the TKO bell come crunch time.
  • 5 – Bayern (10-1); Rosie Napravnik – Pimlico railbirds scuttlebutt whisper ‘During the past week [Bayern’s] been gliding over the surface.’ I’m saying, when it matters most, Rosie’s button ass will be ‘hang-gliding.’ Scary throwout.
  • 6 – Ria Antonia (30-1); Calvin Borel – filly’s connections have been splooging wads of confidence; naysayers are laughing in front of/behind their back. I’m one of the naysayers, but with a pebble in my shoe. Here’s hoping Ria’s connections don’t know something we should know.
  • 7 – Kid Cruz (20-1); Julian Pimentel – local yokel is bred to run all day; if an anticipated hot pace develops the Kid could cruise by a fleet of rubber-legged runners. But if the pace ain’t hot? Will use in exotic plays. Maybe small win/place savers if track is playing to closers.
  • 8 – Social Inclusion (5-1); Luis Contreras – I profess two handicapping WIN bet commandments: (1) When in doubt, whip it out; (2) All things being equal, thou shalt pick the S horse (i.e. horse whose name begins with an S). I love Social Inclusion’s chances; his ballsy connections are on record saying they’ll be playing their hoof tapping rendition of The Dave Clark Five’s Catch Me If You Can. That said, Social Inclusion’s gonna take a shit load of wise guy money. Will include on win ticket ONLY if his odds drift above 5-1.
  • 9 – Pablo del Monte (20-1); Jeffrey Sanchez – mix 126 pounds of tamale jock with 1,000 pounds of ‘not bred to get the distance’ horsemeat and what do you get? Another one of my mother’s too hard to swallow Del Monte recipes (sorry, mom….I still love you very much, wherever you are).
  • 10 – Ride On Curlin (10-1); Joel Rosario – after his perplexing Derby ride trainer Billy Gowan told redneck rider, Calvin Borel to “Go fuck yourself!” in one breath; in another, “Bienvenido!” to tamale jock, Joel Rosario. A fast closing 7th in the Derby (one length shy of 3rd) Ride On Curlin, like deep closer, Kid Cruz, will be hoping for a hot pace/cleaner trip. Bosom Florida buddy, Hank Seaman, has an aching hard-on for Ride On Curlin; recently, for California Chrome, too. Hank’s seriously thinking about exacta keying Chrome on top of Curlin. Here’s hoping Mr. Seaman’s hard-on doesn’t blow up in my slack-jawed face.

Betting Strategy:

 

  • – Bet amount: $30 – $10 Win/Place/Show tickets on (#2) General a Rod if the load time odds are > 10 – 1; $15 Win/Place ticket if – Bet Amount: $12 – $1 exacta box using (#2) General a Rod (#3) California Chrome; (#7) Kid Cruz; (#10) Ride On Curlin
  • – Bet Amount: $12 – $1 exacta box using (#1) Dynamic Impact (#2) General a Rod; (#3) California Chrome; (#8) Social Inclusion
  • – Bet Amount: $24 – $1 trifecta box using (#2) General a Rod; (#3) California Chrome; (#7) Kid Cruz; (#10) Ride On Curlin
  • – Bet Amount: $12 – $0.10 superfecta using (#1) Dynamic Impact (#2) General a Rod (#3) California Chrome; (#7) Kid Cruz; (#10) Ride On Curlin
  • – Bet Amount: $10 – $10 win on (#8) Social Inclusion ONLY IF 10 MTP odds are > 5-1 (MTP = minutes to post time)

Total Wagers = $100 (with $10 win bet on Social Inclusion/$90 without)

The following two tabs change content below.

Latest posts by Unfiltered Submission (see all)

Unfiltered Submission

Unfiltered Submission