Saratoga Chic Spends Your Money on the Kentucky Derby

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Saratoga Chick’s 2014 Kentucky Derby picks/betting strategy

He’s not famous. His record isn’t that great, but always lets you know his picks for the races.  Here is your Saratoga Chick guide to the best places to put your $102 this week.

Listed by post position/program #; runner’s name; morning line odds; rider

1 – Vicar’s In Trouble (30-1); Rosie Napravnik – looking to crack the female Derby winner barrier. That said, Rosie’s gonna have to do some heavy pushing to squeeze Vicar’s out of trouble from the dreaded one-hole. Rosie in the two-hole is another, dirtier story.

2 – Harry’s Holiday (50-1); Corey Lanerie – Dirty Harry costumed in Halloween horse clothing would be 60-1.

3 – Uncle Sigh (30-1); Irad Ortiz Jr. – he’ll be neighing “Uncle” come crunch time.

4 – Danza (10-1); Jersey Joe Bravo – Pepper Hicks hints he’s giving this guy the hairy ball. Sounds very gay to me. Maybe, for a piece.

5 – California Chrome (5/2); Victor Espinoza – the last California bred to win Derby was 1962’s Decidedly. Has been kicking the shit out of so-so runners on the Cal circuit. Not bred for the distance. That said, will be using in most exotic plays to guard against looking like a dufus.

6 – Samraat (15-1); Jose Ortiz – the field’s sole S horse (i.e. runner with name beginning with S). I have two handicapping commandments when it comes to ‘who knows’ races: (1) When in doubt whip it out; (2) All things being equal, thou shalt pick the S horse (won’t be betting Samraat to win but will be including in all exotic plays).

7 – We Miss Artie (50-1); I’ve coined Javier Castellano – my favorite tamale jock – ‘The patron saint of longshots when you least expect them.” That said, We Miss Artie’s gonna need the Father, the Son & the Holy Ghost plus St. Javier in his corner to crack a 10th place finish.

8 – General a Rod (15-1); Joel Rosario – will be running 1st time without steroids……and without me aboard.

9 – Vinceremos (30-1); Joe Rocco Jr. – name means “we will overcome/win.” Rev. Al Sharpton’s kind of runner, not Donald Sterling’s…..or mine (don’t get me wrong, unlike the Clippers lame duck owner, I embrace all peoples, beliefs and sexual dispositions. Especially atheistic , gay minorities ).

10 – Wildcat Red (15-1); Luis Saez – could be bleeding from every orifice in deep stretch. Early pace factor only.

11 – Hoppertunity (NA); Mike Smith – scratched

12 – Dance With Fate (20-1); Corey Nakatani – beat my win pick last out. Workouts say ‘all systems go.’ The big question: can he duplicate his fake dirt (i.e. Keeneland) form on real dirt? Scary runner.

13 – Chitu (20-1); Martin Garcia – Bobby Baffert knows what it takes to win the Derby. I’m betting Chitu and tamale jock, Martin Garcia don’t understand a word Bobby B.’s saying. Expect to see him on lead early, not late.

14 – Medal Count (20-1); Robby Albarado – will be running his 3rd race in 30 days, but recent Churchill form can be summed up in one word: animalistic. Local yokel trainer, Dale ‘The Chin’ Romans thinks this is the best Derby runner he’s ever had; MC’s gonna have to be especially with my albatross, Robby ‘The Human Anchor’ Albarado back on for ride. The little man who lives in my gut loves MC’s chances. That said, it’s time to (1)When in doubt, whip it out. (Derby Factoid: the last winner exiting the 14-hole was 1961’s Carryback.)

15 – Tapiture (15-1); Ricardo Santana Jr. – threw in a clunker last out. Could rebound but I’m not betting on it.

16 – Intense Holiday (12-1); John Velasquez – wise guy talk abounds; when wise guys talk I listen. Will include in all exotic plays.

17 – Commanding Curve (50-1); Shaun Bridgmohan – Question: how many Derby winners have won from the 17 hole? Answer: None, from 117 tries. If Commanding Curve scores I’ll take it as a sign from God to stop gambling.

18 – Candy Boy (20-1); Gary Stevens – I love Gary Stevens: he could sneak Candy into a top four finish…..without me on for the ride. Another scary throw out.

19 – Ride On Curlin (15-1); Calvin Borel – was training great at CD until a couple of days ago. Horse for the course rider, should help his chances. Yet another scary throw out.

20 – Wicked Strong (8-1); Rajiv Maragh – deep closer hoping for a pace meltdown. Long-winded pedigree says he shouldn’t have any trouble getting the distance. A must include in any exotic scheme

21 – Pablo Del Monte (50-1); Jeffrey Sanchez – even as a kid I always hated my mom’s Del Monte recipes. Runner’s win chances are slightly better than Ron Bennington asking me to babysit his kids.

 

Picks/Betting Strategy:

  • – Bet amount: $30 – $10 Win/Place/Show ticket on (#14) Medal Count if the load time odds are > 15 – 1; $15 Win/Place ticket if – — Bet Amount: $12 – $1 exacta box using (#4) California Chrome; (#5) Samraat; (#14) Medal Count; (#16) Intense Holiday
  • – Bet Amount: $12 – $1 exacta box using (#5) Samraat; (#14) Medal Count; (#16) Intense Holiday; (#20) Wicked Strong
  • – Bet Amount: $12 – $1 exacta box using (#4) Danza; (#14) Medal Count; (#16) Intense Holiday; (#20) Wicked Strong
  • – Bet Amount: $24 – $1 trifecta box using (#5) Samraat; (#14) Medal Count; (#16) Intense Holiday; (#20) Wicked Strong
  • – Bet Amount: $12 – $0.10 superfecta using (#4) California Chrome; (#5) Samraat; (#14) Medal Count; (#16) Intense Holiday; (#20) Wicked Strong

Total Wagers = $102

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