Outside the Box: The Stats That Really Matter (and the ones that don’t)

The nature of sports changes over time. Front offices in baseball, football, hockey, and basketball have all been changed by the presence of saber metrics.  The conventional thinking of the past has become outdated; these are some of the most glaring examples of useless statistics and the alternate stats that you should be paying attention to.

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Baseball:  Batting Average v. On Base Percentage (OBP)

Baseball purists argue that the best barometer of a hitter’s success is their Batting Average— the total number of hits a player makes divided by their total number of at bats. Historically, a very productive offensive season for a hitter would be to have batting average at or above .300 (which  means that the hitter is failing 70% of the time). Batting average is an irrelevant statistic because it only takes into account two of the three possible outcomes: hits and outs. The formula does not take into account walks.

Unlike batting average, which only focuses on hits, On Base Percentage focuses on the most important responsibility of the hitter: not making an out. OBP is a much more valuable statistic because it accounts for all of the potential alternatives for the batter: hits, walks, and outs. Furthermore, OBP is a better metric when comparing players year over year because walks decrease the impact of luck on balls in play, which can either hurt or enhance a player’s batting average.

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Hockey:  Goals Against Average (GAA) v. Save Percentage

Goals Against Average is the amount of goals a goalie in hockey allows on average per game. The formula is calculated by multiplying the total number of goals allowed by 60, the total number of minutes in a hockey game, and dividing the answer by the total number of minutes that the goalie played. Announcers and fans universally use GAA to compare goalies in both today’s game and in regard to players throughout history.

Instead of using Goals Against to measure the successfulness of a goalie, fans should focus on Save Percentage, the amount of shots stopped by the total amount of shots faced. Save percentage is a much better benchmark to measure the effectiveness of a goalie because it accounts for the goalie’s true ability, regardless of the ability of the teammates around him. The benefit of Save Percentage is that it allows fans to measure the effectiveness of goalies that give up the same amount of goals against a different amount of shots. Save percentage allows goalies that give up X amount of goals on more shots to stand out when compared to goalies that give up the face most shots stand between goalies that give up the equivalent amount of goals on less shots.

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Boxing:  Hit Percentage v. Power Shots

The sport of boxing is one of the trickier sports to analyze because it is less mathematically predictable  than other sports.  When fans watch fights the commentators often lead the discussion by analyzing the number of punches thrown and landed by each opponent. Hit Percentage, the total number of punches landed divided by the number of punches thrown,  tends to be the focus.

This logic is completely incorrect because not all punches are created equally. HBO boxing announcer Max Kellerman has stated that he makes his scoring decisions based upon the logic of “which fighter would I rather be” after the round was completed. He is essentially asking which fighter did more damage to the other one. As a result the punches that have the highest impact and brutality are Power Shots – all punches landed that are not jabs. Throughout the course of boxing, judges have often made their decision based upon which fighter seems to be causing more damage to their opponent. If you want to know who will win a fight, it’s a good bet that the fighter that has landed more power shots will win. Often the pure boxer is on the losing end.

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Baseball:  Earned Run Average (ERA) v. Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched (WHIP)

In baseball, the Earned Run Average, or “ERA”, has been the standard in which pitchers have been measured by. ERA is calculated by dividing the number of runs a pitcher allows by the number of innings pitches and multiplying the answer by 9, the number of innings in a standard game. The problem with ERA is that it does not adequately calculate pitchers effectiveness. It measures attributes such as control, and doesn’t gauge or predict future performance, because it only analyzes past performances.

On the other hand, WHIP evaluates the total number of base runners that a pitcher allows. WHIP is calculated by adding the pitcher’s total walks and hits allowed, than dividing that number by the total number of innings that the pitcher pitched. WHIP is not a perfect formula because it does not take into account external factors such as luck and defense, but it does accurately evaluate the aspects of an at bat that a pitcher can control: walks. Pitchers that have low whips less than the league average, 1.25, tend to have very good seasons, while pitchers with a high WHIP tend not to do well.

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Football:  Completion Percentage v. Touchdown to Interception Ratio

Since the mid 70s the National Football League has migrated away from the running the ball in favor of passing. Recently, the NFL has altered the rulebook to give the offensive Wide Receivers, Tight Ends, and Running Backs significant advantages over Defensive Backs, Safeties, and Linebackers. As a result of these rule changes teams have significantly altered the way they call plays. They have shifted away from plays that call for deep passes in favor of short to intermediate throws.

Due to the play calling changes the completion percentage– percentage in which a receiver catches a quarterback’s passes — have exploded. The advent of the bubble screen, quick slant, and the frequency of “check down” routes has caused the accuracy of quarterbacks to be heavily inflated.

The truest gauge of a quarterback’s success is not his accuracy but his decision-making. Fans have seen players with tremendous physical ability, such as Michael Vick, Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, and Tony Romo all struggle due to poor decision-making. Often times making a crucial mistake near their opponents end zone. Conversely, we have seen players that are not as physically gifted throwing the ball flourish due to sound decision making. Quarterbacks such as Tim Tebow and Chad Pennington are the shining examples of players that do not have great physical ability throwing, but have found success due to their ability to minimize mistakes.

The most important measurement that determines football games is turnovers, if your quarterback does not make mental errors and poor decisions, your team will have a better change to win. The most critical of these decisions are where to throw the ball for a score and where not the throw the ball to minimize the risk of a turnover.

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Basketball:  Points Per Game (PPG) v. Player Efficiency Rating (PER)

Unfortunately for the sport of basketball the most important aspect of the game is also its most overvalued trait. In basketball the object of the game is to score more points than your opponent. As a result, players that are proficient at scoring are often overvalued and overpaid. The statistic of Point Per Game is calculated by dividing a player’s total points by the total number of games played.

Players that have a high scoring average, or PPG rating, are not necessarily good basketball players. PPG is both very misleading and irrelevant because it ignores all of the other aspects of the game, including rebounds, assists, turnovers, shooting percentage, and free throw percentage. The statistic does not account for how the player scored all of their points, it only tabulates that they scored a certain amount of points.

A better metric to use when evaluating players is Player Efficiency Rating, (“PER”). Player Efficiency Rating is calculated by assigning different mathematical values to each aspect of basketball, including three point percentage, free throw percentage, blocks, steals, shooting percentage, and assists. The goal of PER is to accurately calculate the value of each player in the league with the average player being graded as a 15. To understand it’s accuracy, over the past six seasons LeBron James, perhaps the game’s best known player, has been rated as the player with the highest Player Efficiency Rating. He has been rated as a 30 or higher four out of the six seasons.

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