2013 NCAA Tournament Cheat Sheet
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March Madness is one of the largest sporting events in the world and is arguably the one that is easiest to get involved and invested in. On ESPN.com alone last year 5.9 million brackets were filled out, with millions ending in disappointment. The tournament is impossible to predict but here are our picks for The Favorites, the Wild Cards who could make some noise, and the possible Giant Killers in this years big dance.
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The Favorites
- Indiana. Preseason # 1 Indiana is still a favorite, heading into March with a record of 26-5. Led by big man Cody Zeller and strong player of the year candidate Victor Oladipo, the Hoosiers are clearly one of the top teams in the country. They locked up their first outright Big Ten title since 1993 and are looking to take that momentum deep into the tournament. They have the top rated offense in the country but their physicality on the boards has been a problem for them all season, if they come into the wrong matchup with a strong, physical team, Indiana could run into some problems. Lucky for them that team might not come until later on in the tournament when they face a Miami or a Syracuse.
- Gonzaga. 30-2 Gonzaga is a team that America seems to be split on. Yes, they lead division one in wins, and yes they are currently the #1 ranked team in the nation but the doubters point to their weak season schedule (only beating one ranked team) and their lack of rebounding (54th in the nation) as reasons that they are primed to be upset. A team with two big guys who can run the floor like Kelly Olynyk and Elias Harris has just a good chance as anyone to make a splash. Their one deficiency comes in the backcourt where their guards just might not be offensively skilled enough if they run into a stellar guard combination. The Bulldogs are stuck in a tough bracket; both Pittsburgh and Wisconsin are teams that can beat them on any given day, with Wisco being the real threat here.
- Duke. The Blue Devils are hoping little brother Seth Curry can have the same tournament impact that Stephen did in the 2008-2009 tournament when he averaged 29 ppg in Davidsons two upsets. The difference is, Seth has the pedigree of Duke as well as a much better supporting cast around him with likely first round pick Mason Plumlee dominating the inside and Ryan Kelly draining 3s from everywhere on the court. Everyone hates Duke, but they are no doubt a true threat year in and year out. This year is no different. Same as Indiana though, rebounding has been a problem for this small, quick team. They should have it easy going into the next round, but watch for Creighton, a team that could really give them a scare.
- Louisville. Louisville suffered a rough stretch midseason with three losses in a row to Syracuse, Nova, and Georgetown but outside of that stretch has been one of the best teams in the country. They are the top defensive team in the tournament and they put a big, athletic team on the floor every night. Their 3-point percentage has not been where they want it but they should be able to cruise through the first two rounds.
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The Wildcards
- Kansas State. The Kansas State Wildcats aren’t a favorite but a 4 seed always has a chance to make some noise in the big dance. Senior Guard Rodney McGruder is a true game changer on both ends of the court. The entire team grabs offensive rebounds like it’s their job and it affords them a lot of 2nd chance opportunities. What to watch for? The fact that they are 1-5 against ranked teams this season coupled with their lack of aggressiveness on the defensive boards. Round one shouldn’t be a problem but Wisconsin in round two is a whole different story.
- Saint Louis. The Saint Louis Billikens are the true definition of a team. They have a great core of Kwamain Mitchell, Cody Ellis, Dwayne Evans, and Jordair Jett, all juniors or seniors who have played with each other for multiple years. They are one of the best defensive teams in the country and can beat anyone as long as they are able to stick to their slower, methodical offense. New Mexico State should not be a problem and I’m looking for the Billikens to make a run.
- Creighton. The Creighton Blue Jays are a team to look out for. Led by Doug McDermott, one of the best pure scorers in the country, averaging 23.1 points and 7.5 rebounds the Jays could be a nightmare matchup. They’re 2nd in the nation in field goal percentage and in the top 25 in overall scoring. Defense is where they might run into a problem; while they have improved they can still be taken advantage of by an experienced team who can put points on the board. Cincinnati is not the team they wanted to face, the Bearcats are a watertight defensive unit but it is their scoring deficiency that gives Creighton the edge.
- Minnesota. Pick the Golden Gophers for the upset in round 1. They have super athletic guards, big bodies in the front court and the best offensive rebounding percentage in the country. They have been inconsistent on a game-to-game basis but a UCLA team that lost Jordan Adams and is limping into the tournament off a loss is going to be upset. The Bruins don’t box out and grab offensive rebounds and that plays right into the Golden Gophers hands. Minnesota is a true wild card, it all depends which Minnesota we see.
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The Giant Killers
- Davidson. Any team that rolls into the tournament on a 17 game win streak has our attention, and that’s exactly what the Davidson Wildcats did. The Wildcats can score with the best of them but have struggled against Duke and Gonzaga, the two ranked teams they have faced off against. It’s a senior heavy team that knows the fundamentals and plays well as a unit. Their issue comes on the defensive end where physical, athletic teams could really give them fits. If they get the wrong matchup they just won’t be able to keep up the pace. Davidson would have liked to run into a less physical team than Marquette, who can bang bodies with the best of them. Don’t count on an upset here but Davidson is a very good team that will take advantage if the Golden Eagles have a bad day.
- Valparaiso. We’re going deep for this one, but with the parity that has been showing in NCAA Basketball this year and the added pressure of the big dance, anything can happen. The Valparaiso Crusaders come into the tournament at 25-7 and what catches my eye is the .488 FG%, good for 7th in the nation. If the Crusaders are efficient with their offense and some things fall right for them, anything can happen. The Michigan State Spartans are a top 10 defensive team and Derrick Nix may give the Crusaders fits inside. Not calling the upset on this one, but they’re not going to let the Spartans roll through easily.
- Bucknell. If you can shoot threes in the tourney, you have a punchers chance, and that’s exactly what the Bucknell Bisons do best. Cameron Ayers and Bryson Jackson are both 40% shooters from deep and Senior Center Mike Muscala averaged 19 and 11 on the season. The Bisons keep games close and when it comes to March Madness, sometimes that’s all you need to catch a break. They’re going up against a team in the Butler Bulldogs that doesn’t excel at stealing passes or blocking shots, but they do pull down boards. Make your shots, and it wont matter.
- Oregon. The Oregon Ducks rank in the top 20 in the nation in defensive consistency but have been maddeningly inconsistent and careless on the offensive side of the ball. On paper it looks like a bad matchup with a turnover prone team going up against Oklahoma State and Marcus Smart but the Ducks are a team that have all the talent they need and just haven’t put it together yet. Don’t rule out this team shining when it matters.
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