Unscientific Presidential Predictors
It’s been a year of talking about polls, debates and swing states. But who needs polling data when we have good old fashioned superstition!? There are plenty of ways to tell who will win the election on Tuesday before anyone even casts a single vote. Some go back decades, others are fairly new. These are the trends and patterns and maybe coincidences that can tell us well before election day who is going to be sitting in the White House. These are the Unscientific Presidential Predictors.
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- The November 6 Election Day. When Election Day falls on November 6th, this predictor says the Democratic candidate shouldn’t even bother campaigning. Every time voters have gone to the polls on the 6th of November starting in 1860, the Republican candidate has won the White House. This seems like a lot, but November 6 Election Days have only happened 6 times before this year.
- Halloween Masks. Here’s a predictor that started in 1996 and has never been wrong. Spirit Halloween stores have been predicting that whichever candidate has the best selling mask for Halloween will win the election. This looks like a landslide for Obama whose masks outsold Romney masks, 60% to 40%. Going by this logic, it would appear that Batman, the Wolfman or Ghostface from the “Scream” movies would have a very good chance at being elected President of the United States.
- The Redskins Rule. Hail to the Redskins. Their predictor had a long run starting in 1940. If the Redskins win the week before the election, then the incumbent party would stay in the White House. If they lose, then the other party would take over power. The Redskin Rule came to a screeching halt in 2004, when they lost to Green Bay, but George W. Bush won. This past weekend the Redskins lost to the Panthers. Now that the cycle has been broken, it’s hard to say this predictor is still relevant. Kind of like the 3 and 6 Redskins.
- Kids Vote. Every election year, Scholastic Magazine lets kids vote for President. And the kids vote has accurately predicted who would win the Presidential race 16 out of the last 18 elections. This year, the children are picking Obama with 51% to Romney’s 45%. Another 4% voted third party, which we can only assume went to either Mickey Mouse or Farty McFarterson.
- The L.A. Lakers. The Lakers had a nice streak of Presidential predicting going on until last election. Since 1952, every election year that the Lakers made it to the NBA Championship series whether they won or lost, the Republicans won the White House. This all worked fine until last election when the Lakers faced the Celtics in 2008 and John McCain lost the Presidency. And with Miami beating Oklahoma City this year, no one is looking to the Lakers to tell us who the President will be.
- First Ladies and Their Cookies. Family Circle magazine has been running their own poll about whose cookie recipe tastes best and in 4 out of the last 5 elections, the cookie poll has predicted the winner. The only blot on Family Circle’s record, the McCains again. This year, Michelle Obama’s “White and Dark Chocolate Cookies” beat out Ann Romney’s “M&M Cookies”, 51.5% to 48.5%. With all that kitchen help, Ann Romney could only come up with an M&M recipe!? Her and her cookies may have lost the election for her husband.
- 7-Eleven Coffee Cups. You’ll need a Presidential coffee predictor to go with those cookies. 7-Eleven stores started their unscientific coffee cup poll with the 2000 election and they have been right ever since. In fact, the coffee cup poll has been predicting winners and losers to within a percentage point. This year the Obama cups are outselling the Romney cups by a 60 to 40 margin. And to make it more exciting, 7-Eleven put out their important Ohio swing state coffee numbers where President Obama’s cup is beating Mitt Romney’s cup 57% to 43%.
- The World Series. The San Francisco Giants sweeping the Detroit Tigers was good news for Team Obama. When the National League wins the series in an election year, so does the Democrat. With the American League, it’s the Republican. This one has held up 11 of the past 15 elections including the past 3. Fortunately this one has nothing to do with how well a sitting President can throw out a first pitch.
- Alabama Versus LSU. Starting in 1984, if the Crimson Tide got the win, so did the Democrat. In election years where the LSU Tigers won, it was the Republican. Final score this past Saturday night, Alabama 21 LSU 17. Sure it came late in the game, but Alabama pulled it out.